💼 Q2 Delivery Consensus of 406k and Cybercab Momentum, Can Fundamentals Prove It? - 2026.06.28

Hello, I'm Peanut from Bultagi.com. Last Friday, Tesla's stock closed at $379, up 1.22%. The market still seems intoxicated by the bullish atmosphere, but we always have to verify with numbers. Looking at the news pouring in this week, let's carefully consider whether this valuation can be justified.

💼 Q2 Delivery Consensus of 406k and European Expansion, Is It Verifiable?

The market is setting the consensus for Tesla's Q2 2026 vehicle deliveries at 406,000 units. On top of that, there's news that Giga Berlin is expanding its annual production capacity to 390,000 vehicles ^[2]. The justification is to respond to the surging demand in Europe, but I wonder if this demand is sustainable. Even if production increases, can profit margins be defended as they are. In a high-interest-rate environment and intensifying competition, if inventory piles up, there is a risk it will lead to margin pressure. From the perspective of a short-to-medium-term swing, we need to prepare for volatility if a gap occurs between market expectations and actual figures around this Q2 earnings release.

🛑 NHTSA Probe Closure and Cybercab, Momentum or Value Trap?

The U.S. NHTSA has closed its investigation into power steering defects involving about 376,000 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles from the 2023 model year. This was thanks to resolving the issue through an OTA software update conducted in early 2025. It is positive that one regulatory overhang has been resolved. Furthermore, expectations for the Robotaxi launch are heating up as official documents like the Cybercab emergency response guide have been leaked, and over 150 Cybercabs have been spotted ^[1], ^[6]. However, caution is needed here. Based on TipRanks, the average analyst price target is $403.49, and we must consider whether the upside is limited compared to the current stock price of $379. Even in a bullish atmosphere, we must touch upon bearish scenarios such as delays in full self-driving approval by regulatory authorities or an increase in accident rates. A stock price that has risen solely on expectations without generating actual cash flows has a high possibility of being a value trap.

⚠️ AI Infrastructure and SpaceX Merger Rumors, and Profit-Taking

Recently, along with news that Tesla is preparing a massive Megapack supply contract with Italy, analyses are pouring in that Tesla is evolving into an AI infrastructure company, such as building MegaPod data centers utilizing Superchargers ^[5], ^[6]. There are even speculations that Elon Musk delaying his tax payment to 2028 is a step to secure voting rights for a merger with SpaceX ^[4]. It is perfect as storytelling, but we must be careful with narratives that are not proven by numbers. For AI revenues other than Robotaxi to be reflected in corporate value, massive CAPEX investments must precede ^[3]. Peanut sees that the current upward trend in the stock price may be an excessive forward-pricing of the future rather than fundamentals. Therefore, rather than uncritical optimism, approaching it as a candidate for profit-taking trim while adjusting portfolio weightings can be a strategy.

Always invest by looking at the numbers cool-headedly. I'll be back next week.