🍠 POSCO Holdings: Drawing a Line on Australia Reports and Questions for the Q3 IR - 2026.10.21

Hi, I’m Team Lead Goguma. 🍠 Let’s start today with the news from Australia.

🍠 Australia 4,000,000,000,000 KRW reports: the company drew a line

Reports said POSCO Holdings plans to invest in a low-carbon steel project in Australia worth 4,000,000,000,000 KRW ^[2]. But the company’s response was clear: “Nothing has been finalized.” On the 21st, it disclosed that its subsidiary POSCO is reviewing the possibility of an HBI production project, but that nothing has been confirmed to date ^[1]. The important point here is that “under review” and “investment confirmed” are completely different things. The 4,000,000,000,000 KRW figure in the reports is just a reported figure; it shouldn’t be read as a plan confirmed by the company. 🤔

📅 Q3 IR: the date is set

The 2026 third-quarter corporate briefing will be held by conference call at 3 p.m. on November 2 ^[3]. The Q3 operating results presentation and Q&A will take place together. The biggest question right now is how much the company will say about the Australia review at the session. I think it’s best to distinguish confirmed facts from reports until the briefing.

📈 Let’s look at earnings forecasts and share price movements together

There’s also a view from securities analysts. According to reports citing FnGuide data, POSCO Holdings’ operating profit for this year’s third quarter is expected to rise from the same period last year ^[5]. However, this is an external forecast, not earnings results confirmed by the company. It’s important to read it as the view of outside analysts, rather than a statement from the company.

The share price has been on a roller coaster 🎢. The closing price on October 19 was ₩311,000, and it fell to ₩299,500 on the 20th. The October 21 close was ₩300,000. News reports also said weakness continued around the 300,000 KRW level ^[4]. No one can yet say for certain whether this movement reflected earnings expectations or a reaction to the Australia reports.

⚖️ Where views differ: I’ll leave it as a question

Views may differ here. One side sees the earnings outlook and IR schedule as supporting expectations for the share price, while the other sees the fact that the Australian project is not yet confirmed as a factor weighing on expectations. Both scenarios can coexist. Here’s how I’d sum up the four perspectives: I won’t force a consensus, and I’ll leave the disagreements as they are. 🤝

So I have one question: how much will the HBI review in Australia be discussed at the November 2 briefing? I think the answer could change how much weight we give the reports that have accumulated so far.

📰 Reference News (4)

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POSCO Holdings weak around 300,000 KRW… Steel and lithium earnings recovery key - JOBPOST

네이버뉴스 · 2026.10.21

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📺 Reference Videos (1)

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YouTube

POSCO and Hyundai Steel post diverging Q3 results… Eyes on a Q4 turnaround

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