🧅 Alphabet (Google): AI Is Racing Ahead, While Search Takes a Breather - 2026.10.24

Onion here. I grabbed a cup of coffee and took a lap around the market. ☕ Today, Alphabet’s story has the AI race and hopes for third-quarter earnings sitting at the same table.

Gemini 4 Talk Is Shaking Things Up

According to Seeking Alpha, one analysis says Gemini 4 (Argon) is coming for ChatGPT’s lunch ^[2]. That’s the article’s claim, not a plan announced by Google. Still, I haven’t spent 30 years watching the market for nothing. Whenever talk of an AI model like this comes up, the market is quick to perk up its ears. 🚀

Cloud is interesting too. Seeking Alpha’s third-quarter preview presents the view that a full-stack AI platform could bring solid growth to Google Cloud ^[1]. That’s an outside perspective, and it’s conditional. Don’t get it mixed up: Alphabet hasn’t said so itself.

The Numbers Are Telling a Different Story

Yahoo Finance put Alphabet alongside Microsoft and Amazon to consider whether AI investment and Google Cloud growth could unlock upside ^[3]. The headline mentions an upside figure, but since it comes from a single source, I’ll leave out the number and just share the direction. 🧅

But market sentiment has been a bit sour lately. At the close, the stock fell to $320.76 on October 22 and $317.25 on October 23, marking two down days in a row. Put that next to $344.91 on October 15, and the trend is clear. Oh boy~ that must sting a little for the bulls.

What’s Interesting Is That AI and Search Are Moving Separately

One YouTube analysis explains that Alphabet’s AI business is booming, while its search business has yet to emerge from its difficulties ^[5]. Within the same company, one side is flying while the other still has its feet on the ground. That raises a question: can a recovery in search catch up with the pace of AI growth? That’s still a blank no one can fill in.

There’s regulatory news too. U.S. senators reportedly sought answers from Google about the use of AI in schools ^[4]. The article provides little detail, so we’ll need to check the original source to learn exactly what they asked for and what follow-up might come. It could change the picture, or it could pass without much notice, so I’ll put it on my watchlist.

Onion’s Take, and What We Still Don’t Know

Onion sees a clear bullish scenario if AI growth and cloud momentum show up in the earnings results. But what we know so far is based on outside forecasts and claims in articles; the third-quarter earnings figures are still a blank. 🔥

There are three things to watch: how Gemini 4 actually turns out, when the search business gets back on its feet, and where the senators’ inquiry leads. I’ll leave you with one last dad joke. Wouldn’t it be great if Google ranked number one in the AI game, alphabetically? Well, that’s just what I’m hoping for. Until the numbers do the talking, let’s keep checking together. 🧅

📰 Reference News (4)

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Alphabet Q3 Preview: Full-Stack AI Platform Positions Google Cloud for Solid Growth (GOOG) - Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha · 2026.10.21

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📺 Reference Videos (1)

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YouTube

Should You Buy Alphabet Stock Before the Huge Investor Update? | GOOG Stock Analysis

▶Parkev Tatevosian, CFA·2026.10.22