🔥 Tesla Between European Sales and Service Controversy - 2026.10.26

Hi, it’s Onion! Your veteran manager with 30 years in the market is here to share a thought again today. Well, well—Tesla news is pouring in all at once. 🧅

Fair Value Is Up, but Analysts Are Divided

According to Yahoo Finance, the fair value of Tesla stock has been revised upward ^[1]. But the headline itself says analysts are divided over AI and SpaceX. This is an outlook from Wall Street, so we need to be clear about who is making the claim. Let’s draw the line first: this is a third-party opinion, not something the company has confirmed.

As for the baseline data, the October 23 closing price was $372.22 and the change was -0.63% 📉. Not a major move, but the news keeps piling up even while the stock takes a breather.

European Sales Surge, but the Numbers Are Still Under Wraps

The Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla’s monthly sales in Europe surged ^[2]. Sales spikes are exactly the kind of signal the market reacts to first, so my ears perked up. However, the source provides no specific sales figures or time period beyond the headline. So for now, just how much sales grew remains a question mark. 🤔

Repair-Service Refugees: The Issue Behind the Sales

At a parliamentary audit by the National Assembly’s Land, Infrastructure and Transport Committee, concerns were raised about inadequate maintenance infrastructure for imported EVs—a problem dubbed “repair-service refugees” ^[3]. Tesla sales have surged this year, but each service center has around 17 repair staff, and repair costs are said to be more than twice those for domestic cars. Applications for consumer dispute resolution are also reportedly more numerous than the combined total for Hyundai and Kia. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said it would strengthen oversight of maintenance infrastructure so customers receive the same level of service regardless of brand. In other words, there’s a service back door behind the sales tailwind. This is more an issue of brand trust than stock news, so it deserves a closer look over time.

Optimus and Robotaxis: The Weight of Musk’s Words

Here’s an interesting point. According to a video, Tesla has started Optimus production on a line at its Fremont factory ^[4], and Musk said on the third-quarter earnings call that no company is close to Tesla in the general-purpose humanoid robot field. That’s like saying the robot race has reached the starting line. If the robots do a good job, will the stock be as steady as a robot? Haha, that was one of the manager’s jokes.

Another video says Musk declared the stagnation was over and that Robotaxi miles driven had increased eightfold ^[5]. It also mentions a timeline under which some owners’ vehicles could join the Robotaxi fleet around the second quarter of 2027. But these are statements and a timeline reported by a video, so don’t read them as a plan confirmed by the company.

Merger Special Committees: A Variable That Could Raise the Stakes

The final piece is a merger. There’s a report that Musk said both Tesla and SpaceX have formed special committees related to a merger ^[6]. The video description also mentions plans to expand Robotaxi service to Dallas. Forming a special committee and deciding to merge are two completely different things. That leaves two questions: how would merger discussions change the value of the two companies, and will Robotaxi expansion lead to real-world driving data and vehicles joining the fleet?

Onion thinks the bullish scenario will become clearer once Optimus and Robotaxis show up in the actual numbers. Until then, verification matters more than words. That’s how the market has always worked in my 30 years of watching it. 🚀