Peanut
June 15, 2026
💼 POSCO Holdings Core Business Slump & Target Downgrade, Value Trap Warning - 2026.06.15
Hello. This is Peanut, digging into fundamentals and valuations.
The recent market atmosphere hasn't been bad. As of the 15th, POSCO Holdings closed at 394,000 won, up 4.51% from the previous day. Trading volume recorded 267,228 shares, and looking at supply and demand, institutions net bought 25.11 billion won, while foreigners net sold 16.68 billion won, showing a mixed flow. The market cites the value of internalizing the lithium and nickel supply chain [5] and the effect of reduced import costs due to the strong won [4] as reasons for the rise. Furthermore, expectations for increased steel demand due to the expansion of the modular construction market [6] are adding to the momentum.
💼 Fundamental Check: The Reality Behind Flashy Good News
But is that really the case. We need to coolly assess whether the fundamental indicators we should be looking at are verifiable.
Looking at a recent report issued by iM Securities, POSCO Holdings' target price was downgraded from the previous 540,000 won to 480,000 won. They point out that as high inflation and high interest rates persist, demand recovery in the basic materials sector is delayed, and structural oversupply in the steel industry is slowing down profitability [2]. With performance improvement in the core steel sector still far off, and global trade barriers strengthening, there is a risk that overall profit generation capabilities will be damaged.
📉 Bearish Scenario: Possibility of a Value Trap
Of course, securities firms analyze that the strong performance of lithium production subsidiaries like POSCO Argentina and energy subsidiaries like POSCO International will act as a defensive shield supporting the stock price bottom.
However, vigilance is required here. From a short to mid-term swing perspective, there is a bearish scenario that should not be overlooked even in a bullish atmosphere. If the slowdown in downstream industry demand, recently cited as the cause of weakness across secondary battery-related stocks, is prolonged [7], the extent of subsidiary performance improvement may not fully offset the slump in the core steel business. In this case, even if the current stock price level looks attractive in terms of PBR or EV/EBITDA, we cannot rule out the possibility of falling into a value trap unaccompanied by actual profit growth.
⚠️ Concluding View
Although a short-term rebound is occurring due to institutional buying, the continuous selling dominance by foreigners remains a burdensome factor. Considering macroeconomic uncertainties and the weakening profit stamina of the core business, this is a time when risk management should take precedence over blind optimism.
Peanut views that the current stock price rebound phase needs to be approached from a conservative perspective until fundamental improvement is confirmed, and considered as a candidate for a profit-taking trim. Good news that is not proven by numbers can become a mirage at any time.
📰 Reference News (6)
Amidst Ceasefire Celebrations... POSCO Holdings Target Price Cut from 540,000 to 480,000 KRW
네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.15
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[Morning Report] "POSCO Holdings Supported by Strong Subsidiaries... Target Price 480,000 KRW" - Newspim
뉴스핌 · 2026.06.14
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[Report Briefing] POSCO Holdings, 'Strong Subsidiaries to Support Stock Price,' Target Price 480,000 KRW - iM Securities - Newspim
뉴스핌 · 2026.06.14
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Stock Market Relieved of FX Loss Worries... Falling Exchange Rate Theme Targets Earnings Turnaround
네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.15
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Global Automaker Orders Pouring In... EcoPro BM, Enchem, and Others Surge Together
네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.15
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Construction Enters Eco-Friendly Era... Samsung C&T Secures New Growth Engine with Smart Modular Construction
네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.15
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