💼 [POSCO Holdings] Steel Oversupply and Institutional Selling Bombardment: Value Trap Warning - 2026.06.17

Hello, fans. This is reporter Peanut, in charge of fundamental analysis at Bultagi.com.

Recently, the market debate surrounding POSCO Holdings has been fierce. From a short-to-mid term swing perspective, we need to rigorously verify with numbers whether the current valuation is justified. Today's (June 17) closing price fell 1.15% from the previous day to 385,500 won, and institutions net sold a massive 44.55 billion won. Can the bullish momentum really continue? Let's pause for a moment and take a cold, hard look.

📉 Structural Limits of the Core Steel Business and Value Trap Warnings

First of all, the situation in the core steel sector is not easy. According to recent reports, the upper margin limit of the steel industry is lowering, and there are warnings that oversupply could be prolonged ^[1]. Although small and medium-sized steel pipe stocks surged on expectations of an end-of-war MOU between the US and Iran, analysts say that it will be difficult for large-cap stocks like POSCO Holdings to undergo a full-scale revaluation without underlying structural improvements ^[4].

In particular, a hit to exports seems inevitable due to the EU's tariff hike in July ^[4]. The fact that institutional investors have placed POSCO Holdings high on their sell lists can be interpreted as a reflection of strong doubts about the speed of this industry recovery ^[2]. There is a risk of falling into a 'value trap' where the current stock price looks cheap, but the fundamentals are actually deteriorating. Do not forget that vigilance is always required.

💼 New Business Expansion: Can it be Proven with Numbers?

Of course, there is also positive news regarding fundamental improvements. POSCO Air Solution has completed a high-purity rare gas plant at the Gwangyang Steelworks with an annual capacity of 130,000 N㎥ ^[3]. It will produce xenon, krypton, and neon used in semiconductors and aerospace, enabling it to self-supply 52% of domestic demand ^[3]. Expanding the high value-added portfolio in connection with the core steel business is certainly welcome from a valuation perspective.

In addition, ranking first as the best company with a 6-year average compliance rate of 97.8% in KOSPI corporate governance disclosure can act as a premium factor. Looking back at a Mirae Asset Securities report from November last year, which showed a high hit rate with an error margin of -1.51% against a target price of 430,000 won ^[5], it seems the securities industry is still maintaining a certain level of expectations.

⚠️ Secondary Battery Materials: Second-Half Performance is Key

However, the situation in the secondary battery sector is serious ^[6]. The securities industry agrees that the key point to watch is whether the company can show meaningful results in the secondary battery materials business, including lithium, in the second half of this year ^{[4] [1]}.

Peanut views that if the lithium performance in the second half falls short of market expectations while the steel oversupply risk persists, a severe bearish scenario could unfold. If the stock price rebounds solely on expectations of new businesses, it might be considered a candidate for a short-term profit-taking trim since the fundamental base is weak. Rather than getting swept up in a bullish atmosphere, we need the caution to thoroughly check whether the profit contribution of the secondary battery sector is verifiable in actual quarterly earnings.

I'll be back with more cool-headed analysis next time.

📰 Reference News (5)

1

[Inder Report] Steel Industry Margin Ceiling Lowered... Warning of Prolonged Oversupply

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.16

📰 View original

2

[Institutional Trading] Heavy Buying of SK Hynix Hits 840B Won... Semiconductor Rally Reignited

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.17

📰 View original

3

POSCO Air Solution Completes Rare Gas Plant... Accelerating Entry into Semiconductors and Aerospace

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.17

📰 View original

4

Steel Stocks Surge Across the Board on Hopes for Iran's Massive Post-War Reconstruction

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.17

📰 View original

5

<Securities Report Analysis - Nov 2025> ③ Lee Jin-hyup's Shinsegae International Prediction Hits 100% Accuracy

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.17

📰 View original

📺 Reference Videos (1)

6

YouTube

Secondary Battery Sector Looks Shaky: Do 'This' If You're Holding (Nemo Economy CEO Kim Min-gyu)

▶웅달 책방·2026.06.16