📉 [Bultagi.com Peanut] Hanwha Aerospace's Battle to Defend 1M Won, Warning of a 40x PER Value Trap - 2026.06.28

Hello. This is Peanut from Bultagi.com. Amid the recent KOSPI panic market, Hanwha Aerospace's stock price has also been pushed down to 1,011,000 won (-5.43%), threatening the 1 million won mark. The fundamentals look solid, but can the current valuation really be justified? Even in the cheers of the bulls, we must always check the bearish scenario. Today, from a short to medium-term swing perspective, let's coldly weigh whether the current stock price has the possibility of being a value trap.

💼 Resolution of the Spanish Lawsuit and Defense Infrastructure Expansion, Can It Be Verified with Numbers?

First, let's look at the favorable news the market is cheering for. There is news that local companies Indra and Santa Barbara are finding a compromise in their 11 trillion won legal dispute that was blocking Spain's next-generation self-propelled howitzer project ^[2]. If this conflict is resolved, the plan for local production of the K9-based tracked self-propelled howitzer, worth about 4.554 billion euros, could gain momentum ^[2]. By utilizing Santa Barbara's existing production facilities, Hanwha has the advantage of reducing initial infrastructure investment costs ^[2].

In addition, global territorial expansion is steadily progressing. In connection with Canada's 120 trillion won next-generation submarine procurement project, they are fully pushing for the overseas export of submarine battery systems. In the Cheongung-II project, which proved a 96% interception success rate in the Middle East war, they are responsible for the launcher and vehicle, contributing to the export performance of about 9.5 billion dollars so far ^[5]. The institutionalization of the security partnership between South Korea and the European Union (EU) due to the military closeness of North Korea and Russia can also act as a structural benefit to the defense export environment ^[9].

Earnings forecasts and future investments are also pointing to positive indicators. The combined operating profit forecast of the top 4 domestic defense companies for the second quarter of this year is observed to be 1.5026 trillion won, an increase of more than 11% compared to the same period last year ^[8]. Furthermore, based on 47 years of accumulated technological capabilities, signing a mutual cooperation agreement with 39 partner companies and stepping up to create a UAV engine industry ecosystem, including a 10,000-pound turbofan engine for stealth UAVs, is evaluated as a long-term growth engine. However, could it be that these positive factors are already excessively priced into the current stock price?

⚠️ The Trap of 40x PER and Daejeon Plant Risk, Beware of Value Trap

Now it's time to check the bearish scenario. The recent incident where global defense leader Rheinmetall plummeted 20% in a single day holds significant implications for us. This means that defense stocks with a PER reaching 40x have entered a phase where they must digest short-term valuation pressure ^[1]. Hanwha Aerospace, as a global peer, cannot be free from this valuation burden either. Above all, in terms of the order environment, Europe's "domestic first" protectionist stance is deepening, which poses a risk of putting the brakes on K-Defense's market entry in the future ^[1].

Movements to ease macroeconomic geopolitical risks are also an unfavorable variable for supply and demand. Following the news of the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to end the war between the US and Iran, short-term profit-taking poured out, causing domestic defense ETFs to plunge more than 10% in just the past week ^[4]. If market funds shift toward construction or infrastructure for post-war reconstruction, it shows that the stock price built on expectations of a war boom is at risk of a sudden correction ^[4].

A more fatal factor undermining fundamentals is internal risk. On June 1, a large explosion occurred during the rocket propellant cleaning process at the Daejeon plant, resulting in two casualties ^[3]. Safety insensitivity and management's connivance are pointed out as the causes, and such a severe disaster risk is bound to act as a serious discount factor for corporate value and ESG evaluation, beyond simple operational disruptions ^[3].

🛑 Short to Medium-Term Swing Strategy, Is It a Profit-Taking Trim Candidate?

Peanut believes that Hanwha Aerospace is currently at a critical crossroads, testing the 1 million won support level. While there is a psychological support line trying to defend 1 million won amid the KOSPI plunge panic ^[12], hasty optimism requires caution in a situation where external valuation pressure and internal safety risks overlap.

Even in a bullish atmosphere, if these risk factors are not clearly resolved, there is a high possibility that the current range will act as a value trap where valuation stagnates. If you are a short to medium-term swing investor, rather than relying on vague order expectations, closely monitoring whether European regulatory barriers can be overcome and the risk of prolonged shutdowns at the Daejeon plant, and considering it as a candidate for position adjustment and profit-taking trim, could be a wise bearish scenario. It is a time that requires cold risk management rather than unconditional rosy outlooks.

📰 Reference News (11)

1

The Core of Rheinmetall's 20% Plunge... 40x P/E Defense Stock Collapses in a Day - Global Economic

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.27

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2

'Good News' for Korea... Will the Tables Turn on Spain's 11 Trillion Won Lawsuit Blocking K9? [Military+]

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.28

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3

[Card News] A Look at Daejeon in H1 2026

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.27

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4

'Anticipating End-of-War Benefits' Should You Buy Construction & Defense Stocks? [S Money+]

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.26

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5

"Astonishing Accuracy"... 14 Trillion Won in Exports

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.27

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6

Hanwha Aerospace,

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.28

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7

Hanwha Aerospace Pushes for Overseas Battery Exports Linked to '120 Trillion Won' Canadian Submarine Project - Global Economic

글로벌이코노믹 · 2026.06.27

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8

[K-Defense Now] Record Earnings Overshadowed...

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.28

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9

South Korea-EU Strengthen Security Cooperation... Expanding Institutionalization & Coordination

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.28

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10

Hanwha to Build an Ecosystem for the Domestic Drone Engine Industry

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.28

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11

Beyond Funding to Startup Nurturing & Manufacturing Innovation... The Win-Win Equation for Conglomerates and Partners

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.28

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📺 Reference Videos (1)

12

YouTube

[Hanwha Aerospace Stock Forecast] Defending 1 Million Won Amid KOSPI -5.8% Panic Market! Must-Read Weekend Fact-Check Briefing

▶급등주경제TV·2026.06.27