🥜 Peanut's Fundamental View: Between ADR Listing Expectations and Extreme Volatility - 2026.06.10

Hello, this is Peanut from Bultagi.com. It was a week where market volatility reached its extreme. I want to ask if everyone's mental state is intact.

💼 US ADR Listing Rumor in August, Is It a Panacea ⚠️

News is coming out that SK Hynix plans to list ADRs in the US as early as August this year ^[1]. The intention is to broaden the investor base and receive proper valuation as an AI-related stock ^[2]. Meritz Securities is raising expectations by suggesting a target price of 2.95 million KRW ^[3].

But is it really so. The listing itself does not mean a fundamental improvement. Blind expectations that the stock price will rise just because liquidity is supplied require caution. It may be valid as a short-term momentum play, but we must also keep in mind the possibility of a value trap.

💼 Where is Next After Yongin? The Dilemma of Securing Infrastructure 🛑

SK Chairman Chey Tae-won opened up about the location of the next semiconductor fab after the Yongin cluster at the Nikkei Forum in Japan ^[4]. His stance is to comprehensively review both domestic and overseas options as long as infrastructure such as power, water, and land are well-equipped ^[5]. Recently, rumors of investment in the Honam or Chungcheong regions circulated in political circles, but the company drew a line saying they know nothing about it ^[6].

Astronomical capital is invested to build a single semiconductor fab. If market demand forecasts are slightly off, there is a risk of it returning as a massive fixed cost burden. In a situation where dependence on the Nvidia ecosystem is increasing ^[13], I want to ask if it is verifiable whether such large-scale investments will become a future poison or medicine.

📉 The Illusion of Record Profits and Rollercoaster Supply and Demand 📉

According to an announcement by the Bank of Korea, the percentage of companies unable to pay interest with operating profit reached a record high of 39.9% since relevant statistics began ^[7]. It seems as if the profitability of all companies has improved, but in reality, excluding Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the operating profit margin remains stagnant at 4.9% ^[8]. It is a fact that SK Hynix is driving performance with high value-added products.

However, the stock price movement is unusual. The KOSPI volatility index (VKOSPI) surpassed the 90 mark for the first time in history, and the market is oscillating between panic and euphoria ^[9]. In particular, the concentration phenomenon is extreme, with retail investors' net purchases of single-stock leverage ETFs exceeding 3 trillion won ^[10]. The stock price surged 15.91% on the 9th, but showed extreme volatility by dropping 7.54% the next day on the 10th.

Fundamentals are solid, but it is a market where supply and demand overwhelm fundamentals. The possibility of high compensation demands at the level of Samsung Electronics in the collective bargaining agreement with the union starting in June could also act as a cost increase risk ^[11]. Furthermore, operational risks such as the chemical leak accident at the Cheongju 4 campus should not be overlooked ^[12]. Peanut views the current section as a time to select profit-taking trim candidates from a short-to-mid term swing perspective rather than new entry. It is a time when portfolio management preparing for a bearish scenario is needed even in a bullish atmosphere.

📰 Reference News (13)

1

South Korea's SK Hynix eyes US listing as soon as August, sources say - Yahoo Finance UK

Yahoo Finance UK · 2026.06.10

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2

"SK Hynix to List US ADR as Early as August... Expanding Investor Base" - MarketIn

마켓인 · 2026.06.10

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3

SK Hynix Expected to List US ADR in August... Meritz Securities Sets Target Price at 2.95M Won [Jupjup Report] - Seoul Economic Daily

서울경제 · 2026.06.10

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4

Chey Tae-won: "Reviewing New Semiconductor Fabs in Regional and Overseas Locations"

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.10

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5

SK Chairman Chey Tae-won: "Reviewing Regional and Overseas Sites for Post-Yongin Fab... Needs Power, Water, Land, and Talent"

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.10

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6

Rumors Spread on New Semiconductor Fabs in Jeonnam and Chungcheong... Samsung and SK Hynix Maintain They "Know Nothing" - Newsis

뉴시스 · 2026.06.10

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7

39.9% of Companies Unable to Cover Interest Expenses... Highest Since 2013

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.10

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8

Korean Firms' Operating Margins Improve to 6.2%... But 4 in 10 Still Can't Cover Interest

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.10

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9

KOSPI Fear Index Hits Record High... Credit Line Balances Surge 600B Won in Two Days

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.10

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10

Retail Funds Flock to Single-Stock Leveraged ETFs

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.10

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11

[Editorial] SK Hynix Wage Negotiations: Stop Compensation Wars and Prepare for Future Investments

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.10

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12

Two Workers Exposed to Chemicals at SK Hynix Cheongju Fab... Sent to Hospital - Kyunghyang Shinmun

경향신문 · 2026.06.10

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13

"AI Supercomputers Impossible Without Korean Tech"... Values of K-Companies Soar

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.10

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