💼 Intel's Rebound: Momentum or Value Trap? - 2026.06.26

Hello, Intel shareholders. Peanut here.

The market sentiment around Intel has been quite heated recently. But as we always do, it's time to look at the numbers with a cool head.

💼 Signs of Turnaround, But Is the Valuation Justified?

The New York Times recently reported on Lip-Bu Tan's management intervention and signs of recovery in Intel's chip business after years of struggle. The market's reaction has indeed been enthusiastic. According to Yahoo Finance, Intel's stock has soared 535% over the past year ^[1].

But we need to stop and think here. Can this dramatic stock price increase be explained by current fundamentals? A series of flashy deals are being reported, including the U.S. government securing a 10% stake, data center projects with SpaceX and Tesla, and Alphabet using Intel CPUs for its AI data centers ^[1]. Notably, former President Trump's comment that Apple agreed to buy semiconductors from Intel has fueled investor optimism ^[1].

📉 Potential of Advanced Packaging and AI CPUs

Positive reports have also emerged on the technical front. Mizuho raised Intel's price target from $128 to $135 ^[2]. Their analysis suggests that advanced packaging technologies like Intel's EMIB-T could support AI data center growth.

Also worth noting is the renewed focus on the efficiency of CPUs, not just Nvidia's GPUs, in processing AI models ^[1]. Even Nvidia forecast that the AI CPU market could grow to up to $200 billion ^[1]. However, Mizuho attached a condition that Intel must improve its manufacturing yields to around 99% for this packaging technology to be competitive ^[2]. Is this yield truly verifiable in the short term?

⚠️ Hidden Risks in a Bull Market, Beware of the Value Trap

While it's a bull market overflowing with good news, we must touch upon the bearish scenario. On the 24th, a massive 13% drop in Micron triggered a broader tech sell-off, leading to weakness in the semiconductor sector, including Intel ^[3]. In fact, Intel's closing price on the 26th ended at $128, showing a bit of a breather.

PBR and EV/EBITDA multiples cannot expand endlessly based purely on market expectations. Caution is required until Apple partnership rumors or foundry yield improvements actually translate into quarterly earnings numbers.

Peanut sees that while Intel currently has momentum from a short-to-medium swing perspective, investing based on vague expectations carries the risk of acting as a value trap. Until fundamentals are verified, managing risk and considering it as a candidate for profit-taking trim could be a rational approach.

Let's watch carefully until the numbers prove themselves.