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📉 Value Trap or Structural Growth? A Precise Autopsy of Samsung Heavy Industries' Fundamentals - 2026.06.18
Samsung Heavy Industries

Peanut

June 18, 2026

📉 Value Trap or Structural Growth? A Precise Autopsy of Samsung Heavy Industries' Fundamentals - 2026.06.18

Hello, this is Peanut, a fundamental analyst at Bultagi.com. 💼

Even amidst the rosy outlook of a shipbuilding supercycle, we must always look at the numbers coldly. Let's carefully examine whether a margin of safety at a historical PBR of 1.2x is secured at the current price level, or if there is a risk of falling into a value trap.

💼 Fundamentals and Orders, Numbers Don't Lie

The most striking thing is the dramatic improvement in the financial structure. Samsung Heavy Industries' total borrowings plummeted by more than half from approximately 3.6813 trillion won at the end of 2023 to 1.4571 trillion won as of the end of March 2026 [1]. It is highly positive that deleveraging (debt reduction) is clearly progressing from a fundamental perspective.

The order status is also solid. Cumulative orders have reached 15 trillion won [12], 90% of the commercial ship order target has already been met, and over 50% of offshore plant orders have been secured [11]. In particular, the US Delfin FLNG Unit 1 project has completed $3.6 billion in financing and entered the full-scale execution phase, adding stability to the offshore plant business [2]. The bottleneck in construction capacity due to production scarcity is contributing to maintaining pricing power [7], and the three core factors of the shipbuilding cycle—newbuilding price index, steel plate price stabilization, and a favorable exchange rate environment—are also positive [11].

But we must stop here and ask a question. Are all these favorable factors already priced in with a premium of over EV/EBITDA 7x?

⚠️ Structural Themes and US Market Entry, Is It Really True?

The narrative about future growth engines is also flashy. Benefiting from the increase in offshore energy infrastructure demand due to the AI power shortage is being discussed [6], and the liquid hydrogen carrier technology, which received concept design approval in 2021, is also being advanced [5].

The hottest potato is the US market. The US Senate Armed Services Committee is pushing a plan through the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) to allow overseas procurement for a maximum of two non-combat auxiliary ships, such as bulk fuel ships [3]. Samsung Heavy Industries is conducting a concept design for the Next Generation Logistics Ship (NGLS) with NASSCO in the US, aiming to enter the market [3].

But is it really true? The Senate bill also includes an intention to check the expansion into the combat ship market in the future by limiting the president's waiver authority [4]. I want to ask if the limited allowance of two non-combat ships can truly lead to a long-term quantum jump in earnings, and if this is verifiable.

📉 Checking the Bearish Scenario and Supply/Demand Outflow

From a short-to-medium-term swing perspective, it is my principle to always point out a bearish scenario even in a bullish atmosphere. As of the closing on June 18, Samsung Heavy Industries closed at 27,850 won, down 3.80% from the previous day. Trading volume recorded 3,378,568 shares, with a flood of dual net selling as foreigners net sold 7.8 billion won and institutions net sold 19.1 billion won.

Shipbuilding stocks overall plummeted due to concerns over the enforcement of the US Investment Special Act [8], and Samsung Heavy Industries was listed among the top stocks net sold by foreigners [9]. In the futures and options market, open interest remains high and directional betting continues, requiring caution regarding increased volatility [10].

Considering the institutional and foreign capital outflow hidden behind the current flashy order narrative and the limited scalability of the US Navy business, Peanut believes that this is a time to classify it as a profit-taking trim candidate and focus on risk management rather than blind chase buying, while being wary of valuation burdens.

📰 Reference News (10)

1

Hanwha Ocean's Earnings Soar, But Borrowings Spike... Due to Overinvestment? - The Tracker

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.18

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2

Samsung Heavy Industries' US 'Delfin FLNG' on Track... Business Stability Expanded with $3.6B Financing

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.18

📰 View original
3

[Exclusive] US Senate Armed Services Committee Opens Door for Overseas Construction of Non-Combat Ships... 'MASGA' Gains Momentum

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.18

📰 View original
4

[Exclusive] US Senate Opens Non-Combat Ships to Korean Shipyards but Limits Presidential Waiver

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.18

📰 View original
5

Airbus Joins the Race for 'Hydrogen Aircraft'

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.18

📰 View original
6

Korean Nuclear & Power Equipment Stocks Emerge Amid AI Power Shortage... Spotlight on Doosan Enerbility & Hyosung Heavy Industries

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.18

📰 View original
7

Shipbuilding Boom Driven by 'Production Scarcity'... K-Shipbuilders Take the Lead in Ship Prices

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.18

📰 View original
8

KOSPI

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.18

📰 View original
9

[Hot Stock] Foreign Investors

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.18

📰 View original
10

[KOSPI Index Futures & Options] Samsung Electronics & SK Hynix Futures Soar... Leading the Index Direction

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.18

📰 View original

📺 Reference Videos (2)

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