Home/Report/Earnings are the Rearview Mirror, Regulation is the Windshield - Kiwoom Securities · Korea Investment Holdings · KODEX Securities

Earnings are the Rearview Mirror, Regulation is the Windshield - Kiwoom Securities · Korea Investment Holdings · KODEX Securities

Goguma TeamJuly 18, 2026157 views
Kiwoom Securities Co., Ltd. (039490)Korea Investment Holdings (071050)KODEX 증권 (102970)

Why Record-High Earnings and a -35% Drop from the Peak Coexist — and What to Pick vs. Avoid Within Them

Read as text

KOREA SECURITIES SECTOR · 2026.07.17

Earnings are the rearview mirror,

Regulation is the windshield

Kiwoom Securities · Korea Investment Holdings · KODEX Securities

039490 · KOSPI  |  071050 · KOSPI  |  102970 · ETF

Why record-high earnings and a -35% drop from the peak coexist — and what to pick vs. avoid within them

Trading volume peak-out debate August leverage regulation Deposits -31 trillion 2Q earnings surprise imminent

Friday, July 17, 2026 · Goguma Team 4-person real-time re-investigation & cross-discussion summary (Price based on: July 16 closing price)
Structure and bubble of trading volume · Full picture of regulations · Dissection of three stocks · Team's proprietary target prices · Bultagi buy roadmap

Onion (Macro/Liquidity) · Acorn (Sector/Value) · Peanut (Fundamentals/Risk) · Carrot (Chart/Supply-Demand/Sentiment) · Sweet Potato (Comprehensive)

Prologue

One-third of the stock price vanished ahead of record-high earnings

Securities firms are currently making the most money in history. In the second quarter, the average daily trading volume was 90 trillion KRW for stocks alone (KOSPI 72.7 trillion + KOSDAQ 17.3 trillion), and approximately 118 trillion KRW including ETFs and ETNs—both record highs. Major securities firms are expected to see a 40-50% surge in Q2 net profit compared to the previous year. However, during the same period, securities stocks collapsed by 22-36% from their yearly highs. The textbook logic that 'securities stocks rise when trading volume increases' was perfectly accurate regarding earnings, but the stock prices betrayed it. This report solves that mystery, values the three stocks based on the answer, and maps out entry points.

StockPrice (7/16 close)Vs. Beginning of YearVs. Yearly High
Kiwoom Securities (039490)322,000 KRW+6.8%-35.0% (Weakest)
Korea Investment Holdings (071050)229,000 KRW+38.8%-21.7% (Strongest defense)
KODEX Securities (102970)21,300 KRW+36.7%-36.5%

To give the answer in advance: The market is not trading based on the record-high earnings just recorded (rearview mirror), but on the trading volume cliff (windshield) expected after the August regulations. And there is evidence for that judgment—investor deposits, the fuel for trading, dropped by 31 trillion KRW in a month, the implementation date for leverage product regulations has been confirmed, and institutions are buying only banks among financial stocks while ignoring securities stocks. However, not all declines are justified. Although the drops in these three stocks look similar, their underlying strength is completely different.

Chapter 1

Anatomy of Trading Volume — Distinguishing Structure from Bubble

In the statement "trading volume has increased," two truths are mixed. One is the structure (level), and the other is the bubble (gradient). We must separate these two to see the future of securities stocks.

Structure — From Real Estate to Stocks, the Money Move is Real

The movement of funds into the Korean stock market this year is not a temporary fad. The proportion of real estate in the assets of wealthy individuals has clearly decreased over the past few years, and investor deposits (standby funds placed in securities accounts to buy stocks) have nearly doubled from 58 trillion KRW to the 111 trillion KRW range in one year. This trend is supported by the government's drive to boost the stock market, including improvements to dividend taxation and amendments to the Commercial Act, as well as the outlook for KOSPI-listed companies' annual operating profits to exceed 1,000 trillion KRW. All four team members agree that the 'base level' of trading volume itself has stepped up a notch.

Bubble — The Identity of the 118 Trillion KRW Daily Volume

The problem is the bubble layered on top. A significant portion of the Q2 trading volume explosion was caused by the high-speed turnover of single-stock leverage exchange-traded funds (ETFs—products that track twice the daily return of individual stocks) listed at the end of May. While this product group accounts for only 7% of the market's net assets, it accounted for 31% of the trading volume, with 13 to 17 trillion KRW circulating daily. With a daily turnover rate exceeding 100%, it was more about rotation itself than investment. Even Goldman Sachs recently pointed to leverage ETFs as a cause of the KOSPI's sharp decline.

Deposits 139.7T → 109.0T

Record high on June 4 → July 13, -30.7T (-22%) in one month · The trading fuel tank is leaking

And the fuel has started to drain. Investor deposits plummeted 22% in a month, from a record high of 139.7 trillion KRW in early June to 109 trillion KRW in mid-July, with some even observing a 'reverse money move' back into savings accounts. Margin loans (money borrowed for investment) are also being liquidated, falling from 38.6 trillion KRW to 34.7 trillion KRW. The average daily trading volume in June has already dropped by more than 6% compared to May.

Team's Trading Volume Outlook. (Hereafter, trading volume is based on the total including ETFs and ETNs—stocks alone were 90 trillion KRW in Q2, or approximately 118 trillion KRW including ETFs.) After the implementation of regulations in August, the average daily trading volume is expected to decrease by 30-45% compared to the 118 trillion KRW in Q2, settling at 65 trillion to 85 trillion KRW. This is still higher than last year's average—meaning the 'structure' remains. However, the multiples (stock price relative to earnings) of securities stocks are attached to an 'increasing gradient' rather than a 'high level.' The moment it drops from 118 trillion to 75 trillion, even if it is higher than last year, the market reads it as a peak-out. There are two judgment lines: if the trading volume stays above 80 trillion KRW after August, the base scenario remains valid; if it falls below 65 trillion KRW, the Q2 earnings will become a 'peak confirmation event.'

Chapter 2

The Full Picture of Regulation — The Blade is Aimed at Brokerages, Not Products

Brokerages, which were beneficiaries of the leverage frenzy, are now receiving the bill for the cleanup. Regulations have already been finalized, and implementation dates have been announced.

The financial authorities' supplementary measures for single-stock leverage were officially announced on July 16. There are three main points. First, raising the basic deposit from 10 million KRW to 30 million KRW (effective around August 5) and second, recognizing only cash for deposit calculations by excluding substitute securities like stocks (effective around August 19) — previously, one could fill collateral with held stocks, making it possible with effectively 3 million KRW in cash, so the threshold is rising several-fold — third, tentatively suspending new listings of related products and expanding trading units starting in November. Additionally, the tracking error management obligations for Liquidity Providers (LPs, brokerages that provide quotes for ETFs) will be strengthened, with penalties such as restrictions on new listings for violations. Instead of the political demand for 'delisting,' the path chosen by authorities is not to kill the products but to tighten the grip on brokerages.

How much does it actually hurt earnings?

The team's estimation is as follows. The profit/loss from LP business itself is a single-digit percentage of brokerage profits, so it's not a direct hit. The real blow is twofold. First, as leverage turnover cools down, brokerage (commission) income decreases — the contribution to related revenue is estimated at 3~8% for large firms and 5~12% for firms with high retail turnover sensitivity. Second, if the margin loan balance decreases by more than 10%, interest income from credit will be suppressed in the same direction. If trading volume drops from 118 trillion to 75 trillion, a 25~35% decrease in brokerage profit is calculated. In short, a 'QoQ cliff' where brokerage profits in Q3 decrease by 30~40% compared to Q2 is highly likely. This cliff is the very reason why stock prices collapsed ahead of the announcement of record-high earnings.

However, there are two things to look at from the other side. First, the regulation is no longer a 'rumor' but an 'official announcement' — one discount factor, uncertainty, has been removed. Second, the forced liquidation (margin call) ratio plummeted from 10.2% in early July to 1.8%, and the selling pressure from forced sales is in the elimination phase. Most of the bad news is out, and now the only issue is confirming 'how much it hurts.'

Chapter 3

Anatomy of Three Stocks — Similar Declines, Different Fundamentals

Same industry, similar declines. But looking inside, one is a diversified fortress, one is pure beta, and one is trapped in double trouble.

Korea Investment Holdings — There's a reason it fell the least (Top Pick)

Korea Investment Holdings (the holding company of Korea Investment & Securities) has diversified profit sources beyond brokerage, including Investment Banking (IB), asset management, promissory notes (short-term financing products), and a stake in KakaoBank. This means many engines remain even if trading volume cools. The Q2 consolidated net profit consensus is 815.9 billion KRW (+51%), but some estimates look as high as the 930 billion KRW range. The chart also proves this — it is the only stock that held above the major retracement support level (half of the 52-week gain) during this crash, maintaining a relative strength of +38.8% since the beginning of the year. Despite record performance, the Price-to-Book Ratio (PBR) is in the low 1x range, making it the only stock trading at a discount compared to the team's base target price.

Kiwoom Securities — It's not cheap just because it fell a lot (Lower Priority)

Kiwoom is the No. 1 in retail brokerage market share, a 'pure play' on trading volume logic. The reason it was strongest when rising becomes the reason it hurts most when falling. On top of this, individual negative news overlapped. At the end of June, accounts where deposits were not reflected due to a system error were mechanically liquidated, and disputes are spreading over the compensation standards proposed by the company (cases of compensation at one-tenth of the actual loss have been filed with the Financial Supervisory Service). While the amount itself is negligible compared to annual net profit, the erosion of trust in a company where retail trust is the only moat is fundamental damage. Crucially, despite being -35% from the peak, the current PBR is about 1.57x — double the historical band (0.5~0.9x). That high multiple is priced assuming an ROE (Return on Equity) in the 20% range, but the raw materials for that ROE are trading volume and credit interest, which are the targets of regulation. It has fallen a lot, but the current price is almost the same as the team's base target price — there is no margin of safety.

KODEX Securities — Sector Beta Without Individual Risks

As an ETF that includes the entire securities sector, individual accident risks like Kiwoom's are diluted, but it is directly exposed to the peak-out of trading volume. Annual dividends in the 3% range provide some downside protection. It is a tool to ride a sector rebound when you don't want to pick individual stocks, not a product that provides alpha (excess returns).

What Supply and Demand Tells Us — Institutions Only Bought Banks. In this recent crash, bank stocks like KB Financial and Shinhan Financial were among the top institutional net buys, but brokerage stocks were absent. Brokerage stocks alone were marginalized within the same financial sector — a calculation by institutions that there is no reason to buy an industry explicitly named as a regulatory target (LP) before earnings announcements. This supply-demand gap is the direct cause of the 'excessive decline relative to earnings,' and looking at it the other way, it is also supply/demand that could return the moment trading volume is confirmed after the regulations are implemented as well.

Chapter 4

Four Perspectives

Optimism that 'now is the golden time' and pessimism that 'the earnings rally is an opportunity to sell' are in direct confrontation. The answer lies somewhere in between.

Onion · Macro/Liquidity

"This is not a crisis, but a dip caused by speeding. The major trend of the 1,000 trillion KRW KOSPI operating profit era and the inflow of Value-up funds has not changed. Even if leverage speculation is refined, trading volume in the second half will maintain a level 20~30% higher than last year. If you don't buy now, when a -35% panic sell occurred ahead of record-high earnings announcements, then when?"

Acorn · Sector/Value

"Brokerage stocks get multiples based on 'rising levels,' not just 'high levels.' If 118 trillion drops to 75 trillion, the market sees it as a peak-out even if it's higher than last year. While it's true that 'retail money is coming into the stock market,' it doesn't mean that money turns over 100 trillion every day. The 80 trillion trading volume after August is the judgment line."

Peanut · Funda/Risk

"In a market where deposits drop by 31 trillion in a month and credit is liquidated by 4 trillion, buying pure brokerage stocks based on a 'record-breaking Q2' is a repetition of the mistake of buying brokerage stocks at the peak of past trading volumes and being stuck for a year. Even though Kiwoom fell -35%, my base target price and the current price are the same — it's not cheap. An earning surprise rally is an opportunity to reduce weight, not to chase buy."

Carrot · Chart/Supply/Sentiment

"This is not a trend breakdown, but oversold. The chart of Korea Investment Holdings holding above the half-way support level of its gain is incompatible with a sector death sentence. However, the fact that the Fear & Greed Index is still 'Neutral' (46) right after the crash means surrender is not complete — it's about staggered buying, not going all-in. Earnings are the rearview mirror; regulations and deposits are the windshield. Act by looking through the windshield at the moment the rearview mirror shines most brilliantly."

The summary of the four perspectives is as follows. Everyone agrees on the 'structural rise in level' of trading volume, but everyone denies the 'extension of the Q2 slope.' What differed was the price judgment in between — Onion sees now as a bottom-zone buying opportunity, while Acorn, Peanut, and Carrot suggest 'picking stocks, splitting entries, and checking judgment lines.' And all four ranked Korea Investment Holdings first and pushed Kiwoom to a lower priority.

Chapter 5

Valuation — Team's Proprietary Target Price

Below is the target price based on the independent valuation of the four members of the Sweet Potato Team, not the brokerage consensus. The consensus target prices (Kiwoom 480,000–600,000 KRW, etc.) were only used for reference as they extended Q2 trading volume by about half — the team directly reflected the Q3 trading volume cliff (65–85 trillion) in the earnings.

Korea Investment Holdings (071050) — 229,000 KRW · Top Pick

ScenarioTarget PriceRationale
Bear200,000 KRW -13%Operating profit volatility + sector multiple decline. Diversified profit sources provide a shallow defense on the downside. PBR in the 0.9x range.
Base270,000 KRW +18%Q2 net profit of 815.9 billion (+51%) beat consensus + Q3 profit decline limited to the -25% level (low brokerage dependence). PBR 1.2–1.3x.
Bull315,000 KRW +38%Trading volume settles at 80 trillion + expansion of IB and promissory notes + re-rating of industry-leading recurring profitability. Retesting 52-week high.
Super Bull360,000 KRW +57%Trading volume regime shift confirmed + re-valuation of KakaoBank stake and subsidiary value + expansion of shareholder returns. PBR in the 1.4x range.

The only one trading at about a 15% discount compared to the team's Base. It has the smallest profit decline sensitivity, yet a 'drop premium' has been applied — the reason it is ranked 1st.

Kiwoom Securities (039490) — 322,000 KRW · Low Priority

ScenarioTarget PriceRationale
Bear260,000 KRW -19%Q3 net profit cliff of -35~40% compared to Q2 + market share drop + regulatory risk. 78.6% retracement supply zone of the 52-week gains.
Base355,000 KRW +10%Q2 earnings surprise + compensation dispute settled. 50% retracement and resistance at early July high. Thin upside potential.
Bull430,000 KRW +34%Trading volume settles at 85 trillion + ROE maintained at 20% + 30% shareholder return rate implemented. PBR 1.9x.
Super Bull500,000 KRW +55%100 trillion trading volume regime + market share recovery + new businesses such as IMA (Investment Management Account) license. Supply zone just before the previous peak.

Despite a -35% drop, the current price is ≈ Team Base. PBR of 1.57x is twice the historical band (0.5–0.9x) — low priority due to no margin of safety. If it reaches Base (355,000) during an earnings rally, prioritize taking profit on trading positions.

KODEX Securities (102970) — 21,300 KRW · Beta Complement

ScenarioTarget PriceRationale
Bear18,500 KRW -13%Next support level if the late July plunge low (20,045) breaks. Sector net profit -20% + multiple compression. 3% dividend yield acts as a buffer.
Base24,500 KRW +15%Record-high combined sector earnings for Q2 confirmed + recovery of early July high (24,510).
Bull28,000 KRW +31%Trading volume settles at 80 trillion + return of foreign capital to the sector. Recovering more than half of the drop.
Super Bull31,500 KRW +48%Resumption of a major bull market + sector re-rating rally. Zone just before retesting the previous peak (33,550).

A tool to capture the industry rebound without individual incident risks. It has a higher regulatory beta than Korea Investment Holdings and lower tail risk than Kiwoom — Middle ranking.

Sixth Page

Buy Roadmap — Bultagi Positioning and Discipline

Buy in the order of 'not broken,' not in the order of 'dropped the most.' This shows the allocation between stocks when total capital is set at 100, along with buy levels and stop-loss lines for each stock.

Capital Allocation Ranking (Team Summary)

RankStockAllocationReason
1Korea Investment Holdings50Minimum profit decline sensitivity + discount to Base + highest relative chart strength. A shield in the regulatory phase.
2KODEX Securities30Exposure to sector rebound while avoiding individual bad news. Distributions reduce the cost of waiting.
3Kiwoom Securities20Large upside potential but has the most 'vulnerabilities' (cliff sensitivity, system disputes, PBR burden). Standard approach is to chase after confirmation.

Buy Levels by Stock (Allocation per stock as 100)

Stock1st Buy2nd BuyBultagi (Upside Chase) ConditionsStop-Loss/Re-evaluation Line
Korea Investment Holdings (229,000)215,000~222,000 (40) — Upper end of late July plunge low (215,500)200,000~205,000 (40) — Psychological line + upper end of Bear zoneRemaining 20 on breakout of 240,000 + confirmation of 80 trillion trading volume maintained after August on pullbacksBreak below 195,000 closing price Reduce half and re-evaluate logic
KODEX Securities (21,300)20,500~21,000 (50)19,500~20,000 (50) — Lower end of late July plunge low (20,045)Bultagi chase **only after breakout and retracement of 24,510 (early July high)**Only inBreak below 18,500 closing price = Acknowledge damage to sector trend, re-evaluate entire position
Kiwoom Securities (322,000)300,000~315,000 (40) — Retracement support line (315,000) to July low (301,000)255,000~280,000 (60) — Bear zone, reversion to historical PBR upper bandBultagi chase only after confirming breakout of 355,000 (Base). If earnings rally reaches 355,000, for trading positions, prioritize taking profitBreak below 295,000 closing price (confirm break of 300k), acknowledge entry into Bear zone if 255,000 is broken

Time Axis Discipline — The calendar for this trade.

  • Late July – Early August · Q2 Earnings Release: A window for a rebound as record-high numbers are posted. However, the moment Q3 guidance is given in the conference call, the cliff could become official — if a rally occurs, take profit on Kiwoom trading positions near Base, and hold Korea Investment Holdings.
  • August 5 · 19 · Regulation Implementation: 30 million deposit required · only cash accepted. The implementation itself is already known news — any panic selling here is an opportunity for confirmation, not a reason for fear.
  • Late August – September · Trading Volume Data: The sole judge. If daily average is above 80 trillion, activate Base scenario (deploy remaining capital); if below 65 trillion, stop buying and review weightings. Before that, no total purchase shall exceed half of the allocated capital.

**Closing.**The logic that 'securities stocks rise when trading volume increases' was not wrong — earnings proved it. What was wrong was the tense of that logic. The market is already buying the next quarter. Therefore, the conclusion of this report is not the abandonment of the logic, but its replacement: The logic of betting on 'increased trading volume' has ended, and the logic of picking 'stocks that are cheap relative to depressed levels and less damaged' has begun. Based on those criteria, Korea Investment Holdings is the top choice, followed by KODEX Securities, and Kiwoom is a stock to hold based on September trading volume data rather than the spark of earnings. Do not be intoxicated by the brilliance of the rearview mirror; look at the judgment line (80 trillion / 65 trillion) on the windshield — that is the only discipline for handling securities stocks in this phase.

Appendix

References

Policies · Regulations

Trading Volume · Deposits · Credit · Supply & Demand

Leverage ETF Market

Stocks, Earnings, and Valuation

Sentiment, Public Opinion, and Chart Data

This report is a narrative analysis based on real-time re-investigation and cross-discussion by Team Goguma (Onion, Acorn, Peanut, Carrot, Sweet Potato).
The target prices and buy levels presented are independent estimation scenarios by Team Goguma, not brokerage consensus, and do not constitute investment advice. Investment decisions and responsibilities lie with the investor.
Price Basis: July 16, 2026 closing price (Domestic stock market closed on July 17) · Kiwoom Securities (039490) · Korea Investment Holdings (071050) · KODEX Securities (102970)

Comments 0

to comment Login

This report is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investment decisions and their consequences are your own responsibility.

Source file — Securities_Brokerage_3picks_20260717.html