What to Do With Existing Holdings Amid the Rebound

GOGUMA TEAM · SEMICONDUCTOR STRATEGY

October 21, 2026 · Intraday Response

Amid the Rebound

What Should You Do with
Your Existing Holdings?

Samsung Electronics · SK hynix
Prices That Support Holding and Conditions for Actually Trimming

Samsung Electronics 005930 · KRX _222,000 won +4.96% vs. previous KRX close _ October 21 09:49:59 KST · NXT 222,000 won

SK hynix 000660 · KRX _1,302,000 won +6.46% vs. previous KRX close _ October 21 09:49:59 KST · NXT 1,302,000 won

**The current recommendation is to hold. A failed rebound and a reason to sell are not the same thing.**Keep your existing holdings. Do not sell everything simply because prices have weakened, but trim without waiting for a rebound if your ability to bear losses or the companies’ earnings outlook is impaired.

Prices and market flows as of 09:49:59 KST · Not closing prices
Price watch levels fixed at actual readings from 09:37:59 · For October 21
Goguma Team · Conditional analysis based on public information

1. Today’s Answer: Keep Existing Holdings

**Keep your existing shares of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Hold off on adding to your positions.**That is not because today’s rebound confirms a long-term reversal. Rather, new earnings evidence supports demand for AI servers, and the facts available so far do not provide sufficient reason to sell existing shares by dismissing the rebound as a brief illusion. This recommendation applies only to holdings that do not compromise funds needed for living expenses, collateral requirements, or your ability to withstand losses.

The October 20 report explained that even as the AI industry grows, investors must consider funding, power, and the sustainability of high memory profits. That assessment still stands. What has changed today is that one company in the supply chain has substantially raised its actual revenue and margin outlook. **Against concerns that “the future is uncertain,” new evidence shows that “current orders are stronger than expected.”**That said, this does not prove that customers will recoup their investments.

We do not divide existing shares into short-term and long-term holdings without a clear basis. If readers ask about the shares they currently own, the answer should apply to those shares. The key point of this report is to distinguish a warning that prices have weakened from an actual reason to reduce your holdings.

Current Situation	Recommendation for Existing Holdings
The rebound is holding, but a strong close has not yet been confirmed	Continue holding. Do not sell simply because the shares have rebounded
Today’s rebound fails, but the business outlook and manageable risk limits remain intact	Do not automatically sell based on price alone. Reassess your risk limits and business assumptions
You are already exceeding limits for collateral, required funds, or acceptable losses	Trim existing holdings as well. Do not wait to break even or for the next rebound
Deterioration in major orders, delivery schedules, pricing, or collection terms lowers the earnings outlook	We recommend trimming existing holdings. Do not wait for actual losses to be announced

Not automatically selling based on price alone does not mean holding will necessarily deliver higher returns. For now, we give more weight to the case for continued participation in demand that remains intact than to the case for selling and re-entering at a more favorable price. This choice still carries the risk of having to withstand further declines.

2. After-Hours Announcements Mattered More Than the U.S. Regular Session

In the U.S. regular session on October 20, the Nasdaq fell 0.02% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined 0.29%. On these figures alone, the sharp rebound in Korean semiconductor stocks seems puzzling. But Supermicro’s preliminary results, announced after the market close, told a different story. Commentary on the Korean Market Open, After-Hours Semiconductor Reaction

Supermicro’s preliminary revenue for the July–September quarter came in at $18.5 billion–$19.5 billion, above its previous outlook of $14.5 billion–$15.5 billion. Based on the midpoint, that is an increase of about 26.7%. The gross margin also improved from the previous 10.4~10.8% to 12.0~12.5%. The company cited rising demand for AI platforms and changes in its customer and product mix. These are preliminary, unaudited figures, with final results scheduled to be announced on November 3. Supermicro official announcement, SEC filing

This announcement is at odds with claims that AI server orders are collapsing across the board right now. It is meaningful good news for semiconductor investors. However, rising revenue at server manufacturers does not necessarily mean Samsung Electronics and SK hynix will see memory sales volumes and margins increase by the same proportion. Whether end customers are generating enough cash from those servers is a separate question.

Relief from oil price pressures amid hopes for US-Iran mediation also helped drive the rebound. But hopes for negotiations are not the same as a deal. Accordingly, this rally is a session in which positive announcements on real-world demand and easing macroeconomic pressures prompted buying after the previous day's sharp decline. It is neither a baseless rebound nor a recovery in which all risks have passed. Korea Investment & Securities Morning Brief, October 21

3. At what prices should we turn positive today?

The price reference is the October 21 KRX regular session. The strength threshold is the KRX high recorded by 9:37 a.m., and the rebound failure threshold is the KRX low at the same time. We will not raise these levels even if a new high is reached later. These prices were chosen not because any predictive power of specific historical price levels has been proven, but to consistently assess today's buying strength using prices with a clearly defined exchange and reference time.

Current prices at 09:49:59 KST are Samsung Electronics 222,000 won (+4.96%) and SK hynix 1,302,000 won (+6.46%). At the same time, NXT prices are also 222,000 won and 1,302,000 won, respectively. The previous day's KRX closing prices were 211,500 won and 1,223,000 won. Prices by exchange

Today's assessment	Samsung Electronics 005930	SK hynix 000660	Implications for existing holdings
Strengthened holding case	224,750 won or higher	1,316,000 won or higher	A strong rebound holding near the morning high. Supports the decision to hold
Rebound intact · recovery incomplete	217,000 won or higher and below 224,750 won	1,258,000 won or higher and below 1,316,000 won	The current range. Hold existing positions; hold off on additional buying
Rebound failure after the open	Below 217,000 won	Below 1,258,000 won	Failure to hold the morning low. Downgrades the rebound assessment but is not an automatic sell signal
Gains versus the previous day erased	211,500 won or lower	1,223,000 won or lower	The opening gap is also erased. Price recovery alone provides little basis for optimism

From the current prices at 09:49:59 to the strength thresholds, Samsung is +1.24% and SK hynix is +1.08%. The distances to the rebound failure thresholds are −2.25% and −3.38%, respectively, and to the previous day's closing prices, −4.73% and −6.07%. The calculation is threshold price ÷ current price − 1. These figures are not target returns but the distance to today's observation levels. SK hynix's KRX open was 1,260,000 won and its low was 1,258,000 won; they are different, and NXT open and low prices were not used as substitutes.

Entering a range intraday is a provisional assessment; if the 15:30 KRX closing price remains in that range, the day's assessment is confirmed. SK hynix crossed the strength threshold at 09:42, reaching 1,317,000 won, but had fallen back to 1,302,000 won by 09:49. Accordingly, recovery remains incomplete for both stocks. This is not the result of raising the threshold, but of prices moving relative to the same threshold.

Falling short of the strength threshold does not mean the rebound has failed. Conversely, closing above the threshold does not guarantee a rise the next day or increase long-term fair value. This table classifies the strength of today's rebound; it is not a proven trading rule showing that you can sell existing holdings and buy them back at a lower price.

4. Fund flows improved, but the rally narrowed

On the KOSPI, foreign investors maintained their buying as individual investors’ net selling increased, and institutions also turned to buying. However, foreign investors’ net buying eased somewhat after 09:38, while foreign investors on the KOSDAQ increased their selling. A rising index alone does not mean that all investors are willing to take on risk again.

Market / Investor Type	09:28 snapshot	09:38 snapshot	09:50 snapshot	Change since 09:38
KOSPI individuals	−2,181억	−3,275억	−4,130억	−855억
KOSPI foreign investors	+1,496억	+1,986억	+1,911억	−75억
KOSPI institutions	−232억	+11억	+437억	+426억
KOSDAQ individuals	−140억	+6억	+272억	+266억
KOSDAQ foreign investors	−120억	−354억	−662억	−308억
KOSDAQ institutions	+281억	+363억	+388억	+25억

Amounts are net purchases in units of one hundred million Korean won (억); 원 denotes Korean won (KRW); negative values indicate net selling. Snapshot times are rounded, and the aggregation timestamp for each flow update was not provided. Figures are preliminary and may be revised. Other entities, such as other corporations, are omitted, so the totals for the three investor groups may not sum to zero. Market-wide flows should not be substituted for flows in individual stocks such as Samsung Electronics or SK Hynix. Source: KOSPI, KOSDAQ.

Over the same period, the number of advancing KOSPI stocks fell from 496 to 426, while decliners rose from 336 to 422. On the KOSDAQ, advancers fell from 1,222 to 1,026, and decliners rose from 391 to 608. Stocks at the daily price limit are counted separately. **The broad recovery seen early in the session is not continuing to spread.**That said, this data alone cannot confirm that the rebound is over, short positions are being covered, or forced liquidations have run their course.

5. Conditions for Actually Reducing Existing Holdings

The most difficult scenario is when prices slide again despite good news. If Samsung Electronics closes below 217,000원 and SK Hynix below 1,258,000원, today’s post-open rebound will be classified as a failure. If prices fall further, giving back the previous close, and foreign investors resume selling, confidence in the rebound’s durability will weaken further. Even so, I would not make automatically reducing existing holdings the default response based on those two signals alone.

If prices recover immediately after selling, you may have to buy back at a higher price or miss the recovery altogether. For example, assuming you sell at the previous close and buy back at the holding-strength thresholds, you would pay about 6.26% more for Samsung Electronics and about 7.60% more for SK Hynix. This calculation illustrates a possible opportunity cost; it is not a forecast of actual execution or a trading recommendation. Conversely, holding cash is advantageous if prices fall further after the sale. The available data do not support reliable estimates of which outcome is more likely.

Does this mean the conditions for selling will never arise? No. The following are reasons to reduce existing holdings directly.

When losses exceed what you can bear or funds you need

If maintaining collateral is difficult, money needed soon is tied up in stocks, or losses exceed your predetermined tolerance, reduce your holdings by the amount required. These conditions apply independently of how well the business is doing. A decline in the share price itself can push losses beyond your limit, so do not defer selling indefinitely on the grounds of strong results.

In this case, the condition for selling has been met; only the number of shares to sell remains to be calculated. Actual holdings, cash, debt, funding needs, and loss tolerance have not been verified, so this public report does not prescribe a fixed percentage to sell. That does not mean the decision to reduce should be deferred. The amount to reduce is whatever is needed to restore the funds required and bring potential losses back within a tolerable range.

When the business assumptions underpinning earnings weaken

If reductions in orders from major customers, delivery delays, price cuts, or worsening payment terms become significant enough to lower future recurring earnings—even after taking product mix and costs into account—the decision should be to reduce existing holdings. Recurring earnings means profits that can be generated consistently, excluding one-off tailwinds. **This is not a rule that says to sell only after a loss is actually reported.**Respond when reliable leading indicators point to a lower outlook.

For both Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, the key factors are memory shipment volumes, realized prices, customer inventory, and collection terms. For SK hynix, also assess separately whether transactions related to Solidigm are eroding the value attributable to the parent company's shareholders. Do not judge based solely on the phrase “declining ownership stake”; assess the cash raised, investment impact, debt, and transaction terms together. These are risks explained in the existing report. October 20: Industry and Capital Allocation Analysis

If SMCI lowers its preliminary figures in its final results, today's positive news should be reassessed. But a revision by one server maker does not automatically confirm earnings damage at the two Korean memory companies. The key question is whether it flows through to actual orders and product-level profitability.

When the business is strong but the share price gets too far ahead of its value

Even if earnings forecasts hold, existing holdings can be trimmed when the share price gets too far ahead of reasonable growth, margins, and valuation multiples. A good company and a good purchase price are not the same thing. However, Today's higher thresholds of KRW 224,750 and KRW 1,316,000 are neither overvaluation benchmarks nor profit-taking targets. Since the latest normalized earnings and shareholder-attributable value have not been recalculated, reaching those prices alone is not a reason to recommend selling on valuation.

6. Decide in advance what to do after today's close

Closing price and additional facts	Action on existing holdings	Criteria for increasing holdings again
Close at or above the higher threshold; business conditions and risk limits remain intact	Maintain holdings. Do not take profits automatically	Assess any new increase separately against value and risk capacity
Close in the middle range; business conditions and risk limits remain intact	Maintain holdings. Do not trim solely for failing to reach the higher threshold	Do not repeatedly check the price and keep raising the buy-in level
Close below the failure threshold or at/below the previous day's close, while other assumptions remain intact	Lower expectations for a rebound, but do not sell automatically. Immediately assess your ability to withstand further declines	Do not start trading in and out based solely on this price signal
Collateral, funding needs, or loss limits exceeded	Trim the necessary amount from existing holdings. Do not wait for the close or a rebound	Restoring risk capacity comes before price recovery
Deterioration in key business conditions or shareholder-attributable value	Trim existing holdings to reflect lower earnings and value	When the reason for trimming has been resolved and the investment appeal at the prevailing price has returned

Do not assume that an order decided after checking the closing price was executed at that closing price. Actual orders should reflect prices, bid-ask spreads, and liquidity in the market available afterward. After-hours NXT is a different market from the KRX closing market; this does not mean you must wait until the next day.

The team's macro view emphasized the opportunity cost of selling while ignoring genuine supply-chain tailwinds. The industry view added the caveat that even a strong company may be trimmed if its shares are expensive. The earnings view noted that a price decline can become a real reason to sell if it breaches loss limits. The quantitative view distinguished the unverified predictive power of price levels from the claim that holding has been proven superior. The view that a recovery could remain attractive at lower prices still stands, but we did not average out differing opinions to create a new number.

The final recommendation is to maintain existing holdings. Today, we choose neither “sell because it rebounded” nor “hold on no matter what because it has fallen so much.” Treat a failed rebound as a price warning, and base any actual reduction in existing holdings on reasons such as risk capacity, recurring earnings, shareholder-attributable value, and price relative to value. If those reasons are confirmed, do not wait to recover your cost basis.

Analysis as of: 2026-10-21 09:49:59 KST. Market prices and flows are intraday snapshots, not the day's closing prices. Price observation levels are for today and should not be reused unchanged on the next trading day. The analysis underwent independent team reviews and cross-checks. Stock-specific investor flows and forced liquidation volumes for the day, as well as individual account risk limits, have not been verified. No new fair-value targets, trading success probabilities, or backtests are provided, and returns are not guaranteed.